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China's GDP Has Achieved 18.3% Year-on-Year Growth in the First Quarter——How Do I Feel as a Member of a Foundry?

BESSER

              China's economy is continuing to recover steadily and there is no doubt that its GDP will grow by more than 6% in 2021. GDP in the first quarter was 2,493.1 billion yuan, achieving 18.3% year-on-year growth, increasing 0.6% sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2020 and increasing 10.3% from the first quarter of 2019, with a two-year average of 5.0% growth. It means that China's economy has made a solid start of the 14th “Five-Year Plan” and the spring of 2021. What is the meaning of an 18.3% GDP growth in the first quarter? It is a world record in 30 years. What’s more, it is also worth noting that in addition to the 18.3% GDP growth in the first quarter, the first quarter import and export also achieved a peak. On April 13, 2021, the total import and export value in the first quarter was 8.47 trillion yuan, achieving an increase of 29.2% over the same period in 2020. The total trade import and export value for the first quarter of 2020 was RMB 6.57 trillion, which was a decrease of 6.4% over the same period in 2019.

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We all recognize that this big increase is somehow due to the "low base effect". In this regard, when releasing the relevant data, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics gave an indicator that has never been seen before: the two-year average figure. For example, after mentioning the year-on-year growth of 18.3%, it immediately said that it was 10.3% higher than the first quarter of 2019, with a two-year average growth of 5.0%. What does this two-year average figure mean? In fact, it means taking the data of 2021 and comparing it to 2019, using this year's growth rate to fill the "hole" caused by last year's epidemic. The result of using this approach to statistics is that after such a "fill", the two-year average growth rate has become 5%, becoming a single digit.

This reminds us of last year, not only Zhejiang Province, but also many local leaders and cadres across the country in their speeches at meetings, coincidentally mentioned a phrase: to take back the losses caused by the epidemic. This "two-year average figure" reflects the meaning of taking back and snatching back the losses. In other words, the goal is not to compare with others and surpass them, but to constantly surpass ourselves.

Another thing that is very important is that we should always keep our heads clear. In recent times, many regions, including some regions in Zhejiang Province, have analyzed and monitored the situation in the first quarter, and this attitude can be seen from the information during the relevant meetings. on April 12, Ningbo City held the 129th executive meeting of the municipal government to analyze the situation in the first quarter, and the press release issued afterwards was quite calm. This press release, talking about the achievements of Ningbo City in the first quarter of this year, roughly told only one sentence: since this year, all departments around the strong and effective promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the city's economy showed a stable recovery trend, the main economic indicators grew faster. After that, this press release said: to fully and objectively analyze the economic situation, to look at both year-on-year growth rate and the chain growth rate, to look at both macroeconomic data and the personal feelings of market participants, to see both the overall economic operation and pay close attention to the new situation and new problems.

Of course, what cannot be denied is the strong recovery of the manufacturing industry. PPI’s increase has accelerated, and corporate profits have quickly repaired. Industrial equipment production continues to grow at a high rate, and the situation of manufacturing industry improves. The demand for corporate financing is strong, and the policy supports the flow of loans to the manufacturing industry. From the price data, financing data and trade data released in March, PPI’s increase has accelerated on a year-over-year basis, enterprise financing demand was strong, the quantity of import rose, and the strong recovery logic of manufacturing industry was established.

In this environment, as a member of the foundry in this trend, I can only use the word "busy and anxious" to summarize the description of our team's daily work at the moment.


Even with the huge increase in orders, we can't take a relief. The scheduling, production, rework, and final delivery of an average of 300 to 400 orders per month are all stressful for us. At the same time, due to the current high growth of orders, we are bound to expand production and increase efficiency, to keep up with our peers. But the day of overcapacity is bound to come, and we all have a deep impression of the first year of the trade war, right? We have to deal not only with the present dilemma of tight delivery schedules, but also with the challenge of overcapacity in the future.


Of course, although the present increase in business does not represent the excellence of our company, there is no need to be presumptuous. We should take advantage of the situation to build an efficient capacity structure and adjust our strategic business structure to complete the upgrade of our business structure during this boom of orders.


Another great feeling is that at present, whether it is managers or front-line operators, all factories are in short of personnel because of expanding production capacity. The recruitment scene in industrial areas is particularly worrying this year. No matter it is raining or winding, there is a dedicated recruiter waiting at the entrance of every factory. Although it is good for workers to find jobs now, when this trend cools down, both production staff and departmental staff will face layoffs. Therefore, no matter how the external environment is, improving one's technical skills and professionalism is an ultimate goal that will never go out of date. We try our best to avoid the situation of layoff by maintaining a stable business volume. What’s good to know is that, as a foundry for customizing non-standard parts, our products can be used in almost all fields of industrial and consumer goods, and are less likely to fluctuate in demand depending on the fluctuation of a certain industry. Therefore, it can be said that our business structure is quite healthy overall.


In summary, the government is calm about the world record of 18.3% increase in GDP year-on-year growth. We Besser, as a tiny member of the manufacturing industry, should keep an objective and calm attitude and a clear head all the time, so that we can successfully overcome difficulties at present and face the greater challenges in the future.

 

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